SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2014

Of the service sector, some industries with a large proportion achieved higher growth compared to that in 2013’s same period such as wholesale and retail increased by 5.61%; board and lodging service by 7.58%; finance, banking and assurance by 5.91%. In the industry and construction, the manufacturing achieved higher growth with 7.3%; construction rose 3.4%. Of the agricultural, forestry and fishery sector, farming grew by 1.91%; fishing by 3.58%; forestry by 4.64%.

In the economic structure in the 1st quarter this year, the agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 12.88%; the industry and construction accounted for 40.32%; the service sector accounted for 46.8%. In terms of GDP to use in the 1st Quarter, final consumption rose 5.06% from the same period in 2013, of which the household final consumption increased by 4.92%; accumulated assets by 3.24%.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

The production value of this sector at 2010 comparative price in the 1st quarter was estimated to raise 2.43% from the same period last year, of which agriculture increased by 2.01%;  forestry by 4.8%;  fishing by 3.71%.

a. Agriculture

As of March 15th, the country cultivated 3,062,300 ha of spring rice, equaling 99% from the same crop last year, of which the cultivated area in the North was 1,112,700 ha, equaling 100.1%; in the South was 1,949,700 ha, equaling 98.4%. As of mid-March, provinces in the South harvested 725,300 ha of spring rice, equaling 64.6% against the last year’s same period.

The animal husbandry in three beginning months of the year was affected by cold weather. As estimated, the country’s flock of buffalos decreased by 1.5% - 2% from 2013’s same period; oxen by 1% - 1.5%; the output of live-weight buffalo meat and beef for slaughter declined 1% - 1.5%. The flock of pigs was estimated to increase slightly from the identical period last year because blue ear disease was controlled, and pork prices had signs of rising again. The output of live-weight pork for slaughter rose 1% 0 1.2% from 2013’s same period. The breakout of bird flu epidemic had influence on the poultry farming in many provinces. From the beginning of the year, bird flu epidemic appeared in 32 provinces and cities making over 140,000 chickens and ducks infected and died, 160,000 destroyed. As estimated, the total number of poultry in three beginning months of the year reduced 1% from 2013’s same period.

b. Forestry

The total area of concentrated forest area in three months was estimated to reach 11,500 ha, rose 36.9% from the same period last year. The number of dispersedly-planted trees reached 64.2 million, rose 0.3% against 2013’s identical period. Wood production gained 1,190,000 m3, rose 5.2%; firewood production achieved 7.6 million cubic meters, rose 2.7%.

As of mid-March, damaged forest area was at an estimate of 600 ha, of which burnt area was 508 ha, up 25.8% from the similar period last year; destroyed area was 92 ha, up 64.8%. Several provinces had burnt forest area like: Lang Son 67 ha; Yen Bai 64 ha; Binh Thuan 48 ha; Son La 44 ha.

c. Fishery

Total estimated fishing production in three beginning months of the year gained 1,185,200 tons, rose 3% compared to that in the same period last year, of which there were 870,800 tons of fish, grew by 1.6%; 118,200 tons of shrimp, by 8.6%. Farmed production was estimated to achieve 497,900 tons, down 0.4% from the identical period in 2013, of which there were 346,800 tons of fish, a decrease of 4%; 87,500 tons of shrimp, an increase of 10.1%. Estimated caught production reached 687,300 tons, increased by 5.6% from the same period last year, of which there were 524,000 tons of fish, grew by 5.6% and 30,700 tons of shrimp, by 4.8%. Sea catching in three months gained 648,900 tons, rose 6% from 2013’s identical period.

3. Industry

Industrial Production Index (IPI) in March was estimated to grow by 4.7% from the same period last year. Generally, in three beginning months of the year, IPI rose 5.2%, higher than the similar period’s growth rate of 5% in 2013. Of industries, the manufacturing had a good growth of 7.3%; the power generation and supply rose 9.2%; the water supply and waste treatment rose 5.7%; only the mining and quarrying reduced by 2.9%.

Consumption index for the whole manufacturing in February, 2014 decreased by 0.9% from the previous month and grew by 6.3% from the identical period last year. Generally, in two beginning months of the year, consumption index of this industry rose 4.3% from the same period last year. Stock index for the entire manufacturing as of March 01, 2014 rose 13.4% from 2013’s same period.

4. Services

a. Retailed sales of consumer goods and services 

Estimated total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in March grew by 2% from the previous month and by 10.1% from the similar period last year. Generally, in three beginning months of the year, whole retailed sales of consumer goods and services were estimated to raise 10.2% from the last year’s same period (if the factor of inflation were excluded, the growth rate would be 5.1%). Of the total, the trade business increased by 8.1%; hotel and restaurant by 12.1%; service by 23.5%; tourism by 20.3%. 

b. Carriage of passengers and cargos

Two months’ passenger carriage was estimated to raise 5.3% in the volume passengers and 5.9% in passengers-kilometers from the same period in 2013. Of which, transport by road was estimated to grow by 5.5% in the volume passengers and by 4.8% in passengers-kilometers from the identical period last year. Respectively, airway showed an increase of 16% and 12.4%; railway: a decrease of 1.8% and 5.1%; sea: a growth of 2.4% and 1.9%.

Estimated freight transport in three months of the year grew by 4.6% in tons and by 1.3% in tons-km from the same period last year, of which the domestic transport increased by 4.8% and by 3.4%; overseas transport decreased by 3% and by 2% correspondingly. Transport by road increased by 5.7% in tons, and by 4.5% in tons-km carried; river rose 2.8% and 2.4%; sea slowed down 3.6% and rose 0.1%; rail decreased 6.1% 6% respectively.

c. International visitors to Vietnam

In three beginning months of the year, the number of international visitors to Vietnam was estimated to reach 2.3 million arrivals, rose 29.3% from the same period last year. Of the total, visitors coming for tourist purposes gained 1,403,800 arrivals, rose 27.1%; for business purpose 391,500 arrivals, grew by 28.8% and for visiting relatives 403,800 arrivals, by 35.6%.

II. STABILIZE MACRO ECONOMY, CURB INFLATION

1. Construction, Investment & Development

a. Construction

The production value of construction in the 1st quarter at current prices reached an estimate of 155.5 trillion dong, of which the state sector accounted for 10.5%; the non-state sector held 82.1%; the FDI sector took 7.4%. The production value of construction in the 1st quarter at 2010 comparative price was estimated to gain 125.7 trillion dong, rose 3.4% from the same period in 2013, of which the state sector increased by 1.4%; the non-state sector reduced by 1.9%; the FDI sector rose 162.5%.

 b. Investment & development

Estimated realized social investment capital at current prices in the 1st quarter of 2014 reached 214.8 trillion dong, increased by 3.8% against the same period last year and equaled 28.4% of GDP, of which state capital accounted for 36.5% of total capital and increased by 0.4%; the non-state sector took 36.1% and by 6.9% and the FDI sector held 27.4% and by 4.4% respectively.

Of the state sector’s investment capital, realized capital from the state budget in the 1st quarter was estimated to reach 34.4 trillion dong, equaled 19% of the yearly plan and reduced by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2013. Of which centrally managed capital hit 6701 billion dong, equaled 17% of the yearly plan and declined 3.6% from the identical period last year; locally managed capital achieved 27,677 billion dong, equaled 19.6% of the yearly plan and fell by 2%.

FDI from the beginning of the year to March 20, 2014 attracted 252 newly licensed projects with the registered capital of US$ 2046.7 million, decreased by 6% in the number of projects, and by 38.6% in capital compared to the figures in 2013’s same period. Besides, 82 times of licensed projects from previous years was provided with additional capital of US$ 1287.3 million. Therefore, the total registered capital of both newly and additionally financed projects reached US$ 3334 million, reduced by 49.6% from the same period in 2013. Estimated realized FDI in the 1st quarter of 2014 reached US$ 2850 million, rose 5.6% from the similar period last year.

In the 1st Quarter, the manufacturing attracted foreign investors with the registered capital of US$ 2,332 million, accounted for 69.9% of total registered capital; the real estate business received US$ 288.3 million, accounted for 8.6%; other industries received US$ 713.7 million, accounted for 21.5%.

The country had 29 provinces and cities directly under the central management which received newly licensed FDI projects in the 1st quarter from 28 nations and territories.

2. Government revenues and expenditures

Total estimated government revenues from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2014 achieved 157.1 trillion dong, equaled 20.1% of the annual estimate, of which domestic revenues reached 109.9 trillion dong, equaled 20.4%; collecting from crude oil achieved 20.5 trillion dong, equaled 24.1%; from export-import balance 26.1 trillion dong, equaled 16.9%. Of home revenues, 34.8 trillion dong was from state enterprises, equaling 18.9% of the yearly estimate; 25.6 trillion dong from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil), equaling 22.9%; 24.2 trillion dong from non-state industrial, commercial and service taxes, equaling 22.6%; 10.4 trillion dong from individual income tax, equaling 21.8%; 2.3 trillion dong from tax on environment protection, equaling 18.5% and 2 trillion dong other fees, equaling 19.6%. 

From the beginning of the year to March 15, 2014, total government expenditures reached an estimate of 184.6 trillion dong, equaled 18.3% of the yearly estimate. Of which, spending for investment development achieved 28.8 trillion dong, equaled 17.7% (only capital construction reached 28 trillion dong, equaling 17.7%); economic and social development, national defense and security 132.1 trillion dong, equaled 18.8%; paying debts and aids 23.7 trillion dong, equaled 19.7% of the annual estimate.

3. Exports - Imports

a. Exports

Export turnovers in March reached an estimate of US$ 12 billion, increased by 25.8% from the previous month and by 14.6% from the identical period last year. Generally, three months’ estimated export turnover achieved US$ 33.3 billion, grew by 14.1% from 2013’s similar period (if the factor of inflation were excluded, the growth rate would be 13.2%), of which the domestic economic sector reached US$ 10.9 billion, rose 9.8%; the FDI sector (including crude oil) US$ 22.4 billion and rose 16.3%.

For export turnover structure, heavy industrial and mineral goods were estimated to account for 45% of total export turnover, reduced compared to the same period’s proportion of 46.2% in 2013. Light industrial and handicraft products took 37.5%, increased from the same period’s proportion of 36% in 2013. Agricultural and forestry products accounted for 12.6%, declined from the proportion 13.7%. Fishing products accounted for 4.9%, raised from the proportion of 4.1% of the same period in 2013.         

For the export market in the 1st quarter of this year, the United States was the largest market for Vietnam’s exports with estimated export turnovers of US$ 5.9 billion, a rise of 22.9% compared to the same period in 2013. The EU market ranked the second with US$ 5.9 billion, a rise of 7.5%; the ASEAN market reached US$ 4.7 billion, a rise of 6.4%; China with US$ 3.8 billion, a rise of 30.2%; Japan with US$ 3.6 billion, a rise of 17.8%, South Korea US$ 1.5 billion, down 8.9%.

b. Imports

Import turnovers in March reached an estimate of US$ 12.3 billion, rose 21.9 % from the previous month and rose 12.2% from the same period last year. Generally, estimated import turnovers in the 1st quarter gained US$ 32.3 billion, increased by 12.4% from the identical period last year (if the price factor were excluded, the growth rate would be 15.5%), of which the domestic economic sector reached US$ 13.8 billion, grew by 9.7% and the FDI sector US$ 18.5 billion, by 14.6%... 

For export turnover structure in three beginning months of the year, the group of means of production accounted for 93.5% of total import turnovers (the same period’s proportion of 93% in 2013), of which the group of machinery, equipment and accessories took 38.7% compared to the same period’s proportion of 38.2% in 2013. The group of raw materials held 54.8%, equivalent to the proportion of the last year’s identical period. The group of consumer goods accounted for 6.5% of import turnovers (the same period’s proportion of 93% in 2013).

For the import market in the 1st Quarter, China was still the largest one with US$ 8.3 billion, rose 11.8% compared to the similar period in 2013. The following were South Korea with US$ 5.7 billion, increased by 21.5%; ASEAN with US$ 5.1 billion, by 2.1%; Japan  with US$ 2.9 billion by 12.1%; EU with US$ 2.1 billion by 0.8% and the United States with US$ 1.5 billion by 17.8% respectively.

Trade surplus in two beginning months of the year was US$ 1.3 billion and in March was US$ 300 million. Generally, in three beginning months of the year trade surplus was US$ 1 billion, equaled 3% of entire export turnovers. Of the total trade surplus in three months, the FDI sector had the trade surplus of US$ 3.9 billion; the domestic economic sector had the trade deficit of US$ 2.9 billion.

4. Price indexes

a. Consumer price indexes (CPI)

March’s CPI reduced 0.44% from the previous month. In groups of goods and services, catering and related service had the strongest decrease of 0.96% (grain food reduced by 0.13%; foodstuff 1.54%); housing and construction materials decreased by 0.74%; the transport and the postal and communication services by 0.03%. Remaining groups had the slight growth, of which drinks and tobacco increased by 0.24%; family appliances by 0.16%; culture, entertainment and tourist by 0.1%; medicines and health care service by 0.07%; garments, hats, footgear by 0.05%; education by 0.03%. March’s CPI grew by 0.8% compared to February’s. Average CPI in the 1st quarter of 2014 showed a rise of 4.83% from the figure in 2013’s same period.

c. Producer price indexes (PPI)

PPI for agricultural, forest and fishing products rose in the 1st quarter of 2014 increased by 2.42% from the previous quarter, and by 5.14% from the same period last year, of which PPI for farming products grew by 2.66% and 3.96%; forestry products by 1.32% and 9.8%; fishing products by 1.77% and 8.57% respectively. In the first quarter of 2014, PPI for industrial products grew 0.76% from the previous quarter and rose 5.21% from 2013s the identical period, of which PPI for mineral products increased by 1.67% and 16.72%; the manufacturing by 0.24% and 0.89%; power generation and supply by 2.71% and 13.77%; clean water, waste water by 0.17% and 4.28% correspondingly.

Price indexes of raw materials and fuels for production in the 1st quarter of 2014 grew by 0.94% from the previous quarter, and by 2.84% from the similar period last year, of which price indexes of mining and quarrying grew by 2.8% and 6.87%; power, gas, warm water, steam and air-conditioning by 1.91% and 10.12%; medicines and pharmaceutical products by 1.67% and 4.92%; agriculture, forestry and fishery by 1.13% and 3.02% respectively.

The warehousing and transport charge indexes in the 1st quarter raised by 1.36% from the previous quarter, and by 2.56% against the identical period last year, of which the passenger carriage charge increased by 1.97% and 3.11%; cargo carriage charge by 0.74% and 1.87%; warehousing and supporting services by 1.99% and 3.72%. Price indexes of railway transport rose 3.8% from the previous quarter and 5.24% compared to the figure in the same period last year; road and bus transport rose 1.98% and 3.75%; water-way transport by 1.03% and 1.74%; airway transport had no change; warehousing and supporting services by 1.99% and 3.72%.

d. Export - import price indexes

Export – import price indexes in the 1st quarter of this year increased by 0.54% from the previous quarter and by 0.78% from the last year’s same period. Import price index reduced by 0.15% against the previous quarter and by 2.68% from the same period last year. By VND, export price index grew by 0.54% compared to that in the previous quarter and by 1.79% from the same period last year; import price index declined 0.15% from the previous quarter and 1.71% from the last year’s similar period.

III. SOCIAL ISSUES

1. Population, labor and employment

The labor force aged 15 and above in the 1st quarter was at an estimate of 53.8 million, grew by 0.8 million compared to 2013’ same period and by 0.5 million from 2013. The labor force within the working age group was estimated to reach 47.52 million, rose 0.25 million from the same period last year. Persons aged 15 and above working in all economic activities in the 1st quarter of 2014 reached an estimate of 52.8 million, increased by 0.6 million against 2013 and by 0.9 million from the 1st quarter of 2013. On the structure, labors in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 47.1%, rose 0.3 percentage points compared to 2013; labors in the sector of industry and construction accounted for 20.8%, reduced 0.4 percentage points; labors in the sector of service took 32.1%, rose 0.1 percentage points. 

The proportion of trained labors aged 15 and older having the job in the 1st quarter was estimated to reach 18.3%, higher than the proportion of 17.9% in 2013. The unemployment rate of laborers within the working age group was 2.18%, of which it was 3.75% for the urban area. The underemployment rate of laborers within the working age group in the 1st quarter was 3.44%, equivalent to the figures in the same period last year.

2. Food shortage

\In March, 2014, the country had 41,700 households suffering from food shortage, reduced 9% from March, 2013, corresponding to 182,000 hunger persons, decreased 6.2%. Generally, in three beginning months of the year, the country had 166,600 households suffering from food shortage, a decrease of 6.7% against the same period last year, equaling 694,000 hunger persons, down 5.7%.

3. Education

According to primary reports from localities, at the time of opening 2013 - 2014 school year, the country had 13,867 preschools, increasing 319 schools against the previous school year; 15,372 primary schools, increasing 11 schools; 10,460 secondary schools,  170 schools increase and 2,403 high schools; 42 schools increase. In this school year, the country had 198,200 preschool teachers, rose5.3% from 2012-2013 school year. The number of teachers directly teaching for three educational levels was 857,800, rose1. 2%% from the last school year, of which there were 382,200 primary teachers, rose 0.2%; 323,000 secondary teachers, rose 2.5% and 152,600 high school teachers, rose 1.1%. Furthermore, in this school year, the country had 3.6 million preschool pupils, approximately the number of pupils in the last school year; 14.9 million pupils for three teaching levels, rose 1%, of which there were 7.4 million primary pupils, rose 2.7%; 5 million secondary pupils, rose 2.7% and 2.5 million high school pupils, down 6.5%.

4. Epidemic diseases and food poisoning

In three beginning months, the country had 5.4 thousand cases of hemorrhagic fever; 80 cases of virus encephalitis; 35 cases of typhoid; six cases of meningococcal meningitis (1 died); 9,100 cases of hand, foot, mouth disease and two cases died of A(H5N1) flu.

In the month, 385 HIV-infected cases were found in January, bringing the total number of HIV-infected living persons over the country as of mid-March to 216,900, of which 67,500 persons turned to AIDS. The numbers of deaths by AIDS as of above period were 69,800. In three beginning months of the year, the country had 17 cases of food poisoning, infecting 288 persons, of which five cases died.

5. Traffic accidents

Generally, in three beginning months of the year, the country had 2739 cases of traffic accidents, killing 2427 persons and injuring 1762 others. The number of cases of traffic crashing was 3843, making 4700 persons slightly injured. Compared to the same period in 2013, cases of traffic accidents reduced by 2.9%, cases of traffic crashing by 20%, deaths by 5.9%, injured persons rose 2.7% and moderately hurt persons reduced by 21.9%. On average, each day in three beginning months of 2014, the country had 30 cases of traffic accidents and 43 cases of traffic crashing, killing 27 persons, injuring 20 persons and sparingly hurting 52 others.

6. Damage by natural calamity

According to primary reports, natural calamity in three beginning months of the year made four persons lost; nearly 840 ha of vegetables suffered from empty loss; about 180 ha of vegetables and over 1,600 industrial plants damaged; about 2,000 cattle died of cold weather. The total value of  damage caused by natural disasters in three months was at an estimate of 73 billion dong, of which Lao Cai 36 billion dong; Son La 35 billion dong. 

7. Fire and explosion, environmental protection

Generally, in three months, the country had 1,346 cases of violating regulations of environmental protection in 39 provinces and cities directly under the central management, of which 709 cases were treated with total fine of over 19 billion dong.  Only in March, there were 770 violating cases, of which 320 cases were treated with total fine of over 15 billion dong.  In March, the country had 229 cases of fire and explosion, killing seven persons, injuring 10 persons, causing estimated damage of over 54 billion dong. Generally, in three beginning months of the year, the country had 768 cases of fire and explosion, killing 37 persons, injuring 77 persons, over 197 billion dong damage.

GENERAL STATISTICS OFFICE

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